407 ETR (43.23%, equity-accounted)
COVID-19
Throughout 2020, the Province of Ontario went through various stages of stay-at-home orders, state of emergency, lockdowns, and phased reopenings. While the 407 ETR experienced significant declines in traffic since the onset of COVID-19, there were gradual improvements in traffic volumes with each stage of the reopening. During the second lockdown (December 26th 2020) traffic volumes have not been as negatively impacted as compared to the initial close last March 2020.
Despite the impact of lower revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 407 ETR maintained sufficient liquidity to satisfy all of its financial obligations in 2020 and expects to maintain sufficient liquidity in 2021.
407 ETR management continues to analyze the extent of the financial impact of COVID-19. While the full duration and scope of the pandemic continues to remain unknown, Management does not believe it will have a long-term impact on the financial condition of 407 ETR. In addition, 407 ETR continues to review potential reductions to opex and capex.
VKT (Vehicle kilometers travelled)
In 2020, VKTs fell by -45.3%, impacted by the changing mobility restriction measures adopted by Ontario Province to combat the spread of COVID-19 since March.
Traffic reached its lowest levels in early April, to then increase gradually during the phased economy reopening. COVID-19 cases increased significantly from mid-August lows and until year-end. The Province implemented increasingly restrictive social distancing measures in 4Q, including prohibiting indoor dining services and closing indoor gyms, cinemas and venues with high risk of personal contact.
On November 23rd, Toronto and Peel entered the Grey-Lockdown zone, where the most severe restrictions on social gatherings and indoor operations are in place and on December 26th, the entire Province of Ontario entered a more stringent province-wide lockdown, to be in-place for a minimum of 28 days.
Results for 100% of 407 ETR
Revenues were down -39.6% in 2020, reaching CAD909mn.
- Toll revenues (91% of total): -41.0% to CAD827mn, mainly due to lower traffic volumes from the impact of COVID-19, offset by a toll rate increase effective February 1, 2020. Average revenue per trip increased +5.6% vs. 2019.
- Fee revenues (9% of total) CAD82mn (-14.3%) due to lower account fees due to lower trip volumes and the temporary suspension of transponder lease fees, late payment charges and enforcement fees for new Licence Plate Denial notices during 2Q 2020 to help mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 on customers, offset by higher service fees due to the opening of 407 Extension II in late 2019.
OPEX -14.0%, mainly due to lower customer operations costs from lower billing, bank charges and collection costs, coupled with lower staffing costs and lower provision for doubtful accounts. These decreases were offset by higher general and admin. expenses mainly on higher COVID-19-related charitable donations and higher system operations costs and support costs.
EBITDA -43.5%, as a result of lower traffic and revenues, partially offset by lower operating expenses. EBITDA margin was 81.4% vs 87.0% in 2019.
Dividends: In 2020, 407 ETR distributed CAD562.5mn (CAD1,050mn in 2019). Dividends for Ferrovial amounted to EUR160mn. 407 ETR Board will continue to monitor the current pandemic situation and will review any further potential dividend distribution to Shareholders, as appropriate.
Net debt at end of December: CAD8,323mn (average cost of 4.50%). 54% of debt matures in more than 15 years’ time. Upcoming bond maturity dates are CAD18mn in 2021, CAD318mn in 2022 and CAD20mn in 2023.
In March, 407 ETR issued a CAD700mn Senior Notes, Series 20- A1, due March 2050 (aggregate principal amount of 2.84%).
In May, 407 ETR issued CAD750mn of Medium-Term Notes:
- CAD350mn Senior Notes, Series 20-A2, due May 2025 (coupon 1.80%).
- CAD400mn Senior Notes, Series 20-A3, due May 2032 (coupon 2.59%).
In addition, 407 ETR announced the early payment of:
- CAD400mn nominal Senior Medium-Term Notes, Series 10- A3, due May 2021.
- CAD208mn nominal Senior Bonds, Series 99-A5, maturing in December 2021.
407 ETR credit rating
- S&P: “A” (Senior Debt), “A-” (Junior Debt) & “BBB” (Subordinated Debt), with watch negative outlook, issued on 11 Nov 2020.
- DBRS: “A” (Senior Debt), “A low” (Junior Debt) & “BBB” (Subordinated Debt), with negative outlook, issued on 25 Nov. 2020. On 22 May 2020, DBRS assigned “A” Ratings to 407 ETR’s New Issues.
407 ETR bond maturity profile
407 ETR tariffs
On 31 December 2019, 407 ETR announced an increase in tariffs, along with the introduction of seasonal toll rates, which came into effect on 1 February 2020. Given the impact of COVID-19, 407 ETR did not implement the changes included in the seasonal toll rates aside from the increase in February 2020.
Schedule 22
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders, traffic on Highway 407 ETR has been significantly lower and minimum traffic thresholds for 2020 were not achieved as prescribed under Schedule 22. It is 407 ETR’s position that due to the adverse traffic impacts of the pandemic and the force majeure provisions of the Concession Agreement, no Schedule 22 payments apply since the pandemic was declared. Following legal counsel interpretation of the contract no provision has been booked since the pandemic started.
TEXAS MANAGED LANES (USA)
Managed Lanes (MLs) traffic was significantly impacted during the COVID-19 outbreak due to the mobility restrictions and the sequential shut downs, although positively reacting to reopening.
Traffic reached its lowest point in early April following the shelter-in-place orders and closure of schools, but recovered since then at different rates on each Managed Lane. The region shifted from quick re-opening on May to increased restrictions following upswing in cases in June. Restrictions slowly lifted since then until early November, when Texas suffered a spike in COVID-19 cases. Texas government announced on December 3rd that restaurants would have to return to service at 50% capacity, and bars were required to close. Schools remained with the two options, in person and online. Traffic has softened across December, especially during the winter break.
Although Toll Rates in the Texas MLs are dynamically adjusted with traffic, a set of minimum toll rates by time of day predefined by the operator is applied. The traffic fall in the Texas MLs has been partially offset by the positive performance in toll rates and the higher proportion of heavy vehicles.
NTE 1-2 (63.0%, globally consolidated)
The average toll rate per transaction reached USD4.9 vs. USD4.5 in 2019 (+10.3%).
Revenues reached USD125mn (-18.4% vs. 2019) on the back the impact of lower traffic although mitigated by the impact of traffic mix and higher toll rates.
EBITDA reached USD106mn (-18.1% vs. 2019). EBITDA margin of 84.9% (+31 basis points vs. 2019).
NTE EBITDA EVOLUTION
Dividend: NTE distributed a USD46mn dividend in 2020. Ferrovial received EUR25mn.
NTE net debt reached USD1,232mn in December 2020 (USD1,234mn in December 2019), at an average cost of 3.74%.
LBJ (54.6%, globally consolidated)
In 2020, traffic decreased by -37.6%, as COVID-19 induced reduction in traffic since March offsetting strong growth in January and February (+11.6% aggregated). Construction of the 635E project continued during the pandemic, which will introduce one ML in each direction for 10 miles from the eastern terminus of LBJ project.
The average revenue per transaction reached USD3.4 in 2020 vs. USD3.2 in 2019 (+8.5%).
Revenues reached USD104mn (-31.8% vs. 2019) due to higher toll rates, offset by the declining of traffic due to COVID-19 pandemic.
EBITDA reached USD72mn (-43.5% vs. 2019) with an EBITDA margin of 69.1% (83.3% in 2019).
LBJ QUARTERLY EBITDA EVOLUTION
Dividend: LBJ toll road distributed its first dividend (USD229mn), after five years of operations (contractually the asset could not pay dividends until it had been operational for 5 years). Ferrovial received c.EUR109mn.
Refinancing: In September 2020, Ferrovial, via Cintra, completed the refinancing of LBJ’s Private Equity Bonds (PABs) with the issuance of new bonds (USD622mn proceeds). This PABs’ refinancing agreement has led to a lower cost of debt (new PABs 2.92% “yield to maturity” vs previous 7-7.5% old PABs’ coupon).
LBJ net debt amounted to USD1,660mn in December 2020 (USD1,407mn in December 2019), at an average cost of 5.73%, including old debt’s deferred financing costs write-offs from previous PABs.
NTE 35W (53.7%, globally consolidated)
In 2020, NTE 35W traffic decreased by -14.3%. The decrease in traffic caused by COVID-19 was partially offset by positive effects of ramp-up (the toll road opened fully in 2018) and higher exposure to heavy vehicles, resulting in NTE 35W having the lowest decrease in traffic of the three Texas MLs assets.
The average revenue per transaction reached USD3.5 in 2020 up from USD2.7 in 2019 (+26.1%) positively impacted by higher proportion of heavy vehicles (toll multiplier 2x – 5x).
Revenues reached USD98mn (+8.1% vs. 2019) due to higher toll rates, partially offset by the stay-at-home measures due to COVID-19 pandemic.
EBITDA reached USD82mn (+49.9% vs. 2019) with an EBITDA margin of 83.4% (vs 60.1% in 2019). NTE35W EBITDA in 2019 was negatively impacted by NTE3C success fee payment (USD20mn).
NTE 35W net debt reached USD915mn in December 2020, at an average cost of 4.50%, including NTE 3C.
NTE 3C (53.7%, globally consolidated - under construction)
Development, design, construction and operation of Seg. 3C:
- Construction of 2 managed lanes in each direction, c.6.7 miles from north of US 81/287 to Eagle Pkwy.
- Reconstruction of existing general-purpose lanes.
- Construction of access ramps & frontage roads.
- Construction of IH820/I-35W managed lanes direct connector.
- Installation of Intelligent Transportation System “ITS” & tolling systems.
Duration: Concession term ends 2061.
Operation & Maintenance (O&M) and toll collection: exclusive right and obligation to operate, maintain, repair and collect tolls.
- Tolls collected by North Texas Tollway Authority are in line with tolling agreement with TxDOT. TxDOT assumes collection risk.
I-77 (65.1%, globally consolidated)
The northern portion of I-77 Express opened on June 1st, 2019, and the southern portion opened November 16th, 2019. COVID-19 breakout has negatively impacted the traffic, especially since the week of March 22, when Charlotte area shelter-in-place orders were issued by the authorities.
Traffic on I-77 reached its lowest point in early April, but recovered as restrictions slowly rolled back since early May. However, due to an upswing in cases in Autumn, Phase 3 of the Governor’s Safer-at-Home orders went into effect in October. This order was revised on December 8, imposing a statewide curfew between 10pm to 5am.
On November 2020, Ferrovial, through Cintra, agreed with one of the existing shareholders to acquire an additional 15%, increasing its stake to 65.1%. The operation is valued at USD78mn (EUR68mn) plus a deferred payment based on the asset’s performance in June 2024 estimated at USD2.7mn (c. EUR2.3mn).
OTHER TOLL ROADS
Ferrovial’s portfolio includes a number of toll roads which are, mainly, availability projects located in countries with low government bond yields (Spain, Portugal and Ireland) and long duration. Among the availability projects with no traffic risk or equivalent to availability projects held by Ferrovial are: A-66, Algarve (until sale completion), Norte Litoral (until sale completion) and M3.
- Spain: Traffic in 2020 was impacted by COVID-19. Since the beginning of March, traffic was affected by the declaration of the State of Alarm & lockdown measures. Traffic reached its lowest point in April with -88.6% in Ausol I and -79.9% in Ausol II. From 4th May, when the reopening of the economy started, the drops were softening progressively. However, the surge of COVID-19 cases in Spain and the subsequent quarantining of travelers coming from Spain dramatically reduced the number of tourists. 2020 traffic was down -44.7% at Ausol I and -36.5% at Ausol II.
- Portugal: Traffic was also impacted by COVID-19. Traffic reached the lowest point in April with -78.8% in Algarve, -62.0% in Norte Litoral and -63.8% in Azores. The reopening of the economy started on May 4th and traffic began to recover gradually. However, on October 15th the government declared a new State of Alarm, with additional mobility restrictions and curfews during the weekends. Traffic impact on Norte Litoral and Azores was softer due to its lower dependence on tourism. Algarve benefited to some extent from the obstacles imposed to travel to Spain during Summer. 2020 ended with traffic down -33.3% in Algarve, -19.5% in Norte Litoral and -17.9% in Azores.
- Ireland: Traffic was also impacted by the mobility restrictions due to COVID-19. These caused monthly falls that reached in April -72.4% in M4 and -69.4% in M3. The reopening started on May 18th but, since August, the government responded to new outbreaks with extended restrictions to mobility, reaching the most strict level in the last 3 months of the year. 2020 traffic stood at -28.9% at M4 and -24.1% at M3.
OTHER EVENTS
Autema
On 19th October 2020, the Spanish Supreme Court communicated it did not admit the appeal against the High Court of Catalonia’s judgement which ratified the changes introduced in the concession regime by the Catalonian Regional Government (the Grantor) in 2015.
The 2015 changes implied moving from a regime with no traffic risk (the Grantor paid the operator the difference between tolls collected and operating surplus established in the Economic and Financial Plan), to one with traffic risk (with the Grantor subsidizing a portion of the tolls).
This resolution is final in terms of Spanish courts.
As a result of this resolution, Autema has been classified as an “intangible asset” (vs. a “financial asset” before). This change, in 2020 results, has no impact on cash generation nor cash position, but at P&L level, it implies a positive impact of EUR10mn (pre-tax), EUR6mn (post-tax), as a result of:
- A loss of -EUR168mn: difference between the financial asset’s Dec 2019 book value and the intangible asset’s estimated value (net present value of estimated future revenues according to the new regulation).
- A profit of EUR179mn: positive value of the 2008 Inflation derivative to fix the inflation of revenues to be received. The new contract regulation implies lower total revenues so part of the above-mentioned derivative will no longer be efficient.
Additionally, operational results of Autema for 2020 have been restated applying the new concession regime (intangible asset model). Revenues and EBITDA for 2020 result in EUR51mn and EUR43mn, respectively, vs EUR113mn and EUR105mn for 2019 (when the financial model still applied).
ASSETS UNDER DEVELOPMENT
| EUR (million) | INVESTED CAPITAL | PENDING COMMITED CAPITAL | NET DEBT 100% | CINTRA SHARE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Consolidation | ||||
| Intangible Assets | -70 | -748 | ||
| NTE35W* | -70 | -748 | 53.7% | |
| Equity Consolidated | ||||
| Intangible Assets | -35 | -590 | -1,677 | |
| I-66 | -35 | -590 | -1,677 | 50.0% |
| Financial Assets | -81 | -56 | -1,632 | |
| Ruta del Cacao | -54 | -147 | 30.0% | |
| Silvertown Tunnel | 0 | -26 | -373 | 22.5% |
| Bratislava | -30 | -866 | 35.0% | |
| OSARs | -28 | -246 | 50.0% |
(*) Capital invested & committed refers to Seg. 3C. Net debt 100%: includes all 3 seg.
- NTE35W Segment 3C (Texas, USA): The project involves the construction of 2 managed lanes in each direction of the c.6.7miles. Construction works have already started, and the toll road is expected to open at the end of 2023. The concession will end in 2061. Design and construction works are 20% complete.
- I-66 (Virginia, USA): the project includes the construction of 35km on I-66 (between Route 29, close to Gainesville, and the Washington DC ring road, I-495, in Fairfax County). The construction period will run until December 2022, and the concession is granted for 50 years from the commercial agreement closing. Design & construction works are 57% complete.
- Ruta del Cacao (Colombia): 152 Km, out of which 81km are new toll road, construction of 16 bridges, 2 viaducts and 2 tunnels with a combined length of 6km. This is a 25-year concession. Design and construction works were 68% complete as of December2020. In June, a 39km section was opened.
- Brastislava (Slovakia): 59km highway comprising a 4-6 lane beltway south of Bratislava (D4) and a 4-lane highway (R7) from downtown Bratislava towards the south-east. This is a 30-year concession. Design and construction works are 86% complete. In July, the first section of 29.7km opened.
- OSARs (Melbourne, Australia): an availability payment project with a concession term of 22.5 years, comprising the improvement and maintenance of a road network in Melbourne. The design and construction works are 97% complete.
TENDERS PENDING
In the US, we continue to pay close attention to private initiatives:
- Cintra is following various projects of interest in various States such as Georgia, Illinois, Virginia, Colorado and Texas, some of which have already announced a program of projects with Managed Lane schemes.
Cintra continues active in other markets such as UK, Chile, Peru and Australia (Queensland and New South Wales).
